Bristol is emerging from the recession as the Shopping Capital of the South West, it was claimed today. Retail units in the prestige Cabot Circus development are 97% let – and the rest of Broadmead is experiencing an upward trend in business.
The comments come from Destination Bristol operations director John Hirst who says conditions at Cabot Circus have never been better than at the moment.
His comments underline the influential Colliers International’s Midsummer Retail Review which shows that the South West as a whole is continuing to defy national trends with strong performances across the board.
Colliers’ wide-ranging review of commercial property, which surveyed a total of 365 towns across the country, demonstrates that retail performance in the region is drawing ahead of the national average.
More than 90 per cent of towns surveyed in the South West were reported as stable, thriving or improving with less than 10% reported as degenerating or failing.In Bristol, according to John Hirst, the picture is even better. He said: "Talking to and working with retailers and property agents we have a mixed picture.
"But the overall trend is positive and occupancy levels are looking better than last year. We have some areas in Broadmead which are a cause for concern – The Galleries is one of them but the new owners are investing to modernise and make significant changes over the next 12 months to attract new retailers."
He added that the green shoots of recovery can been seen everywhere in the city centre. "And then there are places like Primark which is bringing in so many more people than we have ever seen before.
"We are so confident that Bristol is the shopping capital of the South West that in May we spent money on a local radio and poster advertising campaign to grow our share of the market by attracting people from rival cities and towns including Gloucester, Swindon, Cheltenham, Bath and Taunton.
"We are not contracting but expanding. We are in a position where we are getting inquiries from retailers who are being more selective about where they looking to open. All in all, I am very encouraged about the future."
Tim Davies, head of office at Colliers International in Bristol says retail centre performance in the region has continued to prosper when compared with hard-hit areas of the UK such as the North West and West Midlands. He adds that Colliers' retail review highlights increasingly polarised retail performances as the gap between the UK's economic winners and losers continues to widen.
The winners also include the Cribbs Causeway regional shopping centre. Commercial director Jon Edwards said: "The report draws attention to the importance of continuing investment in shopping destinations. Cribbs Causeway has benefitted from a long term investment programme that has enabled Cribbs to maintain its share of the regional market and compete against the internet shopping offer. Jane Norman’s decision to reopen their store here demonstrates the potential of a well invested Centre to buck the trend. `
Tim Davies added: “The key message in this year’s Midsummer Retail Review is the increasingly divided performance between the best and the rest.
“The good news for the South West is that around half of our towns have reported stable performance with a further 39 per cent thriving and six of our surveyed towns improving. On the other hand just six towns in the South West were degenerating and three more failing.”
Colliers in-town retail agency chief Paul Moody said some towns in the North West and Midlands had been hit by a ‘perfect storm’ which had left them stranded at the wrong end of the rankings.
He added: “There is demand but only for the market leading retail winners. Retailers are migrating to the best performing areas, leaving failing centres behind. Shoppers abandon these towns leaving them no longer viable. Once you have rents falling and voids starting to appear it becomes a downward spiral and secondary pitches may fall out of use forever.”
Colliers forecasters said the failing towns will struggle to attract finance for growth and increasing numbers of pound stores, bookies, fast-food chains and charity shops would drive shoppers to the out of town shopping centres and supermarkets, which continued to out perform other commercial sectors.
Colliers research expert Richard Doidge said the threat to ‘failing’ towns could present commercial property investors with a ‘once in a generation’ opportunity to buy into the threatened sector.
He added that retail and commercial face a tough 12-18 months as consumers continue to cope with far less disposable income. They are also spending £1 in every £5 online rather than in shops.
He predicted sales of big ticket items would continue to suffer as consumers continued to show restraint over discretionary spending. Rents would continue to fall but the effect would be magnified in the failing towns identified in the report.
He said: “Development will remain subdued but the food sector is set fair for retailers and investors alike.”
According to Colliers’, the national picture shows real rents down more than 5% with a further 1.1% nominal fall in 2011 before rents stabilise in 2012 and return to growth in 2013. The average prime retail rent now stands at £111 per square foot – 13.5% lower than the peak of £128 per sq ft recorded in 2008 and a return to levels last seen in 2003.
The number of vacant stores has fallen from 11.4% to 9.7% as a result of ‘quick fix’ solutions such as pop up shops and short term lettings.
